{"id":427,"date":"2023-10-03T11:43:28","date_gmt":"2023-10-03T11:43:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.richardappelbom.se\/?p=427"},"modified":"2023-10-04T07:57:00","modified_gmt":"2023-10-04T07:57:00","slug":"slovakiens-valresultat-hotfullt-eller-mycket-vasen-for-ingenting","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.richardappelbom.se\/index.php\/2023\/10\/03\/slovakiens-valresultat-hotfullt-eller-mycket-vasen-for-ingenting\/","title":{"rendered":"Slovakiens valresultat hotfullt eller mycket v\u00e4sen f\u00f6r ingenting?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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Robert Fico, som vill sluta st\u00f6dja Ukraina, \u00e4r ledare f\u00f6r Smer, som fick flest r\u00f6ster i nyvalet i Slovakien.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Parlamentsvalet i Slovakien fick stor medial uppm\u00e4rksamhet, d\u00e5 Smer<\/a>, som leds av den ryssv\u00e4nlige Robert Fico var st\u00f6rsta parti i opinionsm\u00e4tningarna. M\u00e4tningar visade ocks\u00e5 bristande folkligt st\u00f6d till Ukraina, medan den sittande regeringen hade st\u00e4llt upp f\u00f6r Ukraina efter Rysslands invasion. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Smer blev ocks\u00e5 st\u00f6rsta parti <\/a>med 23 procent, trots att en vallokalsunders\u00f6kning<\/a> pekade p\u00e5 att liberala och EU-v\u00e4nliga Progressive Slovakia,<\/a> (PS) skulle bli st\u00f6rst. \u00c4ven i f\u00f6rra valet \u00f6verskattade<\/a> m\u00e4tningar PS st\u00f6d. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vi f\u00e5r se hur mycket Fico kan och vill \u00e4ndra politiken mot Ukraina. Det \u00e4r en sak att f\u00f6rs\u00f6ka vinna v\u00e4ljare p\u00e5 tr\u00f6tthet \u00f6ver m\u00e5nga flyktingar och en j\u00e4mf\u00f6rt med andra EU-l\u00e4nder positiv syn p\u00e5 Ryssland, en annan att driva den i EU och Nato. En bed\u00f6mning <\/a>\u00e4r att det \u00e4r “mycket v\u00e4sen f\u00f6r ingenting” Medlemskapet i eurozonen, stort budgetunderskott och beroende av EU-st\u00f6d kan leda till att Slovakien f\u00e5r sluta in sig i ledet oavsett hur v\u00e4ljarna r\u00f6star. Andra \u00e4r mer oroliga<\/a>, och pekar bland annat p\u00e5 utvecklingen i Ungern.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

En viktig skillnad j\u00e4mf\u00f6rt med Ungern \u00e4r att Smer \u00e4r l\u00e5ngt ifr\u00e5n egen majoritet. Rapporteringen har mycket handlat om att Smer blev st\u00f6rsta parti. Det \u00e4r ett anglosaxiskt s\u00e4tt att rapportera, i deras valsystem brukar st\u00f6rsta parti f\u00e5 majoritet eller i varje fall f\u00e5 bilda regering. Ett liknande s\u00e4tt att rapporterna finns alltmer i Sverige, d\u00e4r det oroas \u00e4ver att SD skulle f\u00e5 statsministerposten i en framtida h\u00f6gerregering om partiet blir klart st\u00f6rre \u00e4n M i val. (De blev 2022 n\u00e5got st\u00f6rre, men regerinfsmedverkan var inte aktuellt).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Men i flerpartidemokratier blir den statsminister som har starkast st\u00f6d i regeringsunderlaget, inte n\u00f6dv\u00e4ndigtvis st\u00f6rsta parti. J\u00e4mf\u00f6r F\u00e4llden 2 efter valet 1979. M var st\u00f6rsta borgerliga parti, men C och FP, som ville ha F\u00e4lldin, var tillsammans st\u00f6rst.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Slovakien har en femprocentssp\u00e4rr, med ytterligare h\u00f6gre sp\u00e4rr f\u00f6r valallianser. Den h\u00e4r g\u00e5ngen r\u00f6stade n\u00e4stan 17 procent p\u00e5 partier som inte kom in. Visserligen mindre \u00e4n f\u00f6rra valet d\u00e5 det var 28 procent (!), men var sj\u00e4tte v\u00e4ljare fick inte p\u00e5verka parlamentets sammans\u00e4ttning. Ett extremh\u00f6gerparti, Republica, fick 4,75 procent och missade sp\u00e4rren knappt. Men det hade inte hj\u00e4lpt, de uttalat ryssv\u00e4nliga partierna hade \u00e4nd\u00e5 inte haft majoritet. Valsystemet och de m\u00e5nga bortkastare r\u00f6sterna gav Smer st\u00f6rre mandatandel \u00e4n r\u00f6standel med 28 procent mot 23 procent. Men \u00e4nd\u00e5 mycket l\u00e5ngt fr\u00e5n egen majortet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Det \u00e4r Hlas, utbrytare fr\u00e5n Smer, som avg\u00f6r vem som f\u00e5r regera. Valresultatet som helhet var inte heller n\u00e5gon tydlig uppg\u00e5ng f\u00f6r h\u00f6gerpopulister. Smer har tidigare haft starkare st\u00f6d., F\u00f6rra valresultatet var ovanligt d\u00e5ligt och uppg\u00e5ngen fr\u00e5n 2022 var bara n\u00e5gra procent. (Dock kan noteras att Hlas \u00e4r en utbrytning fr\u00e5n Smer. L\u00e4ggs partiernas resultat i hop blir det \u00f6ver 37 procent men en utbrytningg \u00e4r en utbrytming och det nya partiet kan ha lockat v\u00e4ljare som inte tilltalas av Fico och “gamla” Smer) Bara ett h\u00f6gerextremt parti klarade sp\u00e4rren.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Att s\u00e5 m\u00e5nga r\u00f6star p\u00e5 partier som inte klarar sp\u00e4rren och att det \u00e4r s\u00e5 stora upp- och nedg\u00e5ngar f\u00f6r olika partier \u00e4r ett svaghetstecken. Valdeltagandet var 68 procent, s\u00e5 m\u00e5nga avst\u00e5r fr\u00e5n att r\u00f6sta. Som s\u00e5 ofta i l\u00e4nder med svaga och personberoende partier blir politiken instabil, vilket i sin tur kan bidra till missn\u00f6je bland v\u00e4ljarna. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Noterbart \u00e4r att st\u00f6det f\u00f6r Ukraina i \u00d6st – och Centraleuropa verkar svagast i \u00d6sterrike, Ungern och Slovakien, forna k\u00e4rnl\u00e4nder i den Habsburgska dubbelmonarkin. \u00c4r det en slump, eller \u00e4r misstron mot Ryssland mindre d\u00e4r \u00e4n i l\u00e4nder som historiskt varit hotade eller er\u00f6vrade av Ryssland, somSverige, Finland, Polen och baltstaterna? N\u00e5got f\u00f6r historiker att reda ut.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Robert Fico, som vill sluta st\u00f6dja Ukraina, \u00e4r ledare f\u00f6r Smer, som fick flest r\u00f6ster i nyvalet i Slovakien. Parlamentsvalet i Slovakien fick stor medial uppm\u00e4rksamhet, d\u00e5 Smer, som leds av den ryssv\u00e4nlige Robert Fico var st\u00f6rsta parti i opinionsm\u00e4tningarna. M\u00e4tningar visade ocks\u00e5 bristande folkligt st\u00f6d till Ukraina, medan den sittande regeringen hade st\u00e4llt upp […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[10],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-427","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-allman-inlagg"],"yoast_head":"\nSlovakiens valresultat hotfullt eller mycket v\u00e4sen f\u00f6r ingenting? - Richard Appelbom<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Ett ryssv\u00e4nligt parti blev st\u00f6rst i valet i Slovakien, men \u00e4r l\u00e5ngt fr\u00e5n egen majoritet. 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