{"id":600,"date":"2025-05-28T15:44:41","date_gmt":"2025-05-28T15:44:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.richardappelbom.se\/?p=600"},"modified":"2025-05-29T08:57:20","modified_gmt":"2025-05-29T08:57:20","slug":"hogervindar-i-portugal","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.richardappelbom.se\/index.php\/2025\/05\/28\/hogervindar-i-portugal\/","title":{"rendered":"H\u00f6gervindar i Portugal"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Portugals premi\u00e4rminister Luis Montenegro f\u00e5r forts\u00e4tta efter nyvalet. Bild: Wikipedia<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Portugal hade nyval 18 maj 2025 sedan minoritetsregeringen ledd av h\u00f6geralliansen AD fallit i en f\u00f6rtroendeomr\u00f6stning efter fr\u00e5getecken kring premi\u00e4rministerns familjef\u00f6retag. D\u00e4refter utlystes nyvalet. Resultatet innebar<\/a> mandatvinster f\u00f6r h\u00f6geralliansen  AD, d\u00e4r PSD dominerar. Socialistpartiet (PS) tappade r\u00f6ster och mandat, medan h\u00f6gerpopulisterna i Chega gick fram\u00e5t. Valdeltagandet var 64,4, en liten minskning.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chega fick 60 och PS 58 mandat var. PS var d\u00e4remot n\u00e5got st\u00f6rre i r\u00f6stetal med 22,834 mot 22,76 procenten skillnad p\u00e5 drygt 4000 r\u00f6ster! De fyra mandaten fr\u00e5n utlandsr\u00f6sterna tog l\u00e5ng tid att r\u00e4kna. N\u00e4r de var f\u00e4rdigr\u00e4knade<\/a> i slutet av maj(!) gick Chega om PS genom att ta tv\u00e5 nya mandat. Det handlar om tv\u00e5 valkretsar med tv\u00e5 mandat var, AD fick tv\u00e5 och Chega.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Parlamentet har<\/a> 230 ledam\u00f6ter. Valsystemet \u00e4r proportionellt enligt D\u00b4Hondts metod och utan utj\u00e4mningsmandat. Valkretsarna \u00e4r olika stora, fr\u00e5n 48 i Lissabon till 2-3 mandat i sju valkretsar. Det inneb\u00e4r att st\u00f6rre partier gynnas, men att sm\u00e5 partier kan f\u00e5 mandat antingen genom att vara mycket starka i en enskild valkrets eller genom de stora valkretsarna (Lissabon 48 och Porto 48 mandat.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

AD var med 91 mandat en bra bit fr\u00e5n egen majoritet, vilket kr\u00e4ver 116 mandat. Portugal har likt Sverige regler som underl\u00e4ttar f\u00f6r minoritetsregeringar. Det kr\u00e4vs en majoritet av aktiva nejr\u00f6ster f\u00f6r att avs\u00e4tta eller stoppa en ny regering.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

St\u00f6rsta partiet (snarare valalliansen) AD fick 31,79 procent och 91 mandat. Det \u00e4r 39,5 procent av de 230 mandaten. Chega och PS fick knappt 23 procent och 60 respektive 58 mandat, vilket \u00e4r 26 respektive 25,2 procent av mandaten. Liberala IL fick 5,4 procent och nio mandat, vilket motsvarar knappt 4 procent av mandaten.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Livre, ett gr\u00f6nt parti fick 4,07 procent och 6 mandat, vilket motsvarar 2,6 procent av mandaten. Kommunistledda alliansen CDU fick 2,9 procent och 3 mandat, vilket motsvarar1,3 procent av mandaten. Ett djurr\u00e4ttsparti och en annan v\u00e4nsterallians fick ett mandat var med 1,4 respektive 2,0 procent, ett mandat gick till ett lokalt parti p\u00e5 Madeira.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Utan utj\u00e4mningsmandat \u00f6kar sannolikheten att ett parti kan f\u00e5 mandatmajoritet utan v\u00e4ljarmajoritet. AD fick betydligt st\u00f6rre mandatandel \u00e4n v\u00e4ljarandel. Modellen med en sp\u00e4rr p\u00e5 4-5 procent och utj\u00e4mningsmandat \u00e4r d\u00e4rf\u00f6r att f\u00f6redra, men b\u00f6r kombineras med preferensr\u00f6stning s\u00e5 att v\u00e4ljare inte beh\u00f6ver fundera \u00f6ver om de ska taktikr\u00f6sta om ett parti ligger runt eller under sp\u00e4rren.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

N\u00e4r valkretsarna \u00e4r s\u00e5 stora som i Portugal med 48 och 40 mandat blir dock utslaget mer proportionellt utan utj\u00e4mningsmandat och \u00e4ven sm\u00e5 partier kan f\u00e5 mandat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

AD f\u00e5r forts\u00e4tta i minoritet, partiet vill inte samarbeta med Chega. En koalition med LI r\u00e4cker inte, den skulle f\u00e5 100 mandat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Valresultatet \u00e4r ganska \u201dnormalt\u201d f\u00f6r demokratier i V\u00e4steuropa, H\u00f6gerpopulister f\u00e5r i de flera l\u00e4nder 18-26 procent. AD \u201dh\u00e5ller hittills gr\u00e4nsen\u201d, h\u00f6gerut, till skillnad fr\u00e5n andra l\u00e4nder som Sverige.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Portugals premi\u00e4rminister Luis Montenegro f\u00e5r forts\u00e4tta efter nyvalet. Bild: Wikipedia Portugal hade nyval 18 maj 2025 sedan minoritetsregeringen ledd av h\u00f6geralliansen AD fallit i en f\u00f6rtroendeomr\u00f6stning efter fr\u00e5getecken kring premi\u00e4rministerns familjef\u00f6retag. D\u00e4refter utlystes nyvalet. Resultatet innebar mandatvinster f\u00f6r h\u00f6geralliansen  AD, d\u00e4r PSD dominerar. Socialistpartiet (PS) tappade r\u00f6ster och mandat, medan h\u00f6gerpopulisterna i Chega gick fram\u00e5t. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[10],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-600","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-allman-inlagg"],"yoast_head":"\nH\u00f6gervindar i Portugal - Richard Appelbom<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Centerh\u00f6geralliansen AD f\u00e5r forts\u00e4tta som minoritetsregering efter valet. 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