{"id":656,"date":"2026-04-14T15:45:43","date_gmt":"2026-04-14T15:45:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.richardappelbom.se\/?p=656"},"modified":"2026-04-15T08:24:35","modified_gmt":"2026-04-15T08:24:35","slug":"valsystemet-slog-tillbaka-mot-dess-skapare-viktor-orban","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.richardappelbom.se\/index.php\/2026\/04\/14\/valsystemet-slog-tillbaka-mot-dess-skapare-viktor-orban\/","title":{"rendered":"Valsystemet slog tillbaka mot dess skapare Viktor Orban"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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Peter Magyar (v\u00e4nster) besegrade den m\u00e5ng\u00e5rige premi\u00e4rministern Viktor Orban (h\u00f6ger) i valet i Ungern.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Valet i Ungern <\/a>blev en seger f\u00f6r oppositionen, som hade samlat sig kring Peter Magyars Tisza. Opinionsm\u00e4tningarna pekade p\u00e5 Viktor Orbans Fidesz skulle f\u00f6rlora efter att ha styrt i 16 \u00e5r med en supermajoritet med minst tv\u00e5 tredjedelar av mandaten i parlamentet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Men eftersom Orban under sin tid vid makten hade trixat med valkretsar och om vilka som kunde r\u00f6sta samt hade \u00f6kat sitt inflytande \u00f6ver statsapparaten, domstolarna och media fanns en oro \u00f6ver att Fidesz skulle lyckas beh\u00e5lla makten. Det hoppades i varje fall president Putin i Ryssland och president Trump i USA, vilka b\u00e5da st\u00f6dde Orbans omval.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Men s\u00e5 blev det inte.<\/a> Om n\u00e5got verkar det \u00f6ppna st\u00f6det fr\u00e5n Trump och vice president Vance snarare ha \u00f6kat st\u00f6det f\u00f6r oppositionen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Valdeltagandet var med n\u00e4stan 80 procent rekordh\u00f6gt. Tisza fick n\u00e4r de flesta r\u00f6sterna hade r\u00e4knats 52,4 procent mot Fidesz 39,1. R\u00f6str\u00e4kningen har i stort g\u00e5tt r\u00e4tt till och Viktor Orban, vilket hedrar honom, erk\u00e4nde sig besegrad under valnatten.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ungern har 199 platser i parlamentet, men Fidesz har under sin tid vid makten haft tv\u00e5tredjedels majoritet med mer \u00e4n 133 mandat. Det har gjort det m\u00f6jligt att \u00e4ndra f\u00f6rfattningen och st\u00e4rka den egna maktst\u00e4llningen. Tisza fick enligt den prelimin\u00e4ra r\u00f6str\u00e4kningen (98,3 procent) 136 mandat, klart \u00f6ver tv\u00e5tredjedelsgr\u00e4nsen. Men noterbart \u00e4r att r\u00f6stsammanr\u00e4kningen ser ut att minska majoriteten n\u00e4r de sista r\u00f6sterna r\u00e4knas. Under valnatten fick Tisza 138 mandat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Varf\u00f6r har regeringen g\u00e5ng p\u00e5 g\u00e5ng f\u00e5tt \u201dsupermajoritet? Det beror p\u00e5 valsystemet,<\/a> som Orban sedan makttilltr\u00e4det har \u00e4ndrat<\/a> f\u00f6r att gynna sig sj\u00e4lv och det egna partiet. Ungern har <\/a>sedan kommunismen f\u00f6ll haft en kombination av enpersonsvalkretsar och proportionellt f\u00f6rdelade mandat. Tidigare var det som i Frankrike val i tv\u00e5 omg\u00e5ngar till enpersonsvalkretsarna. Det gjorde det l\u00e4ttare f\u00f6r mindre partier att i andra valomg\u00e5ngen enas och h\u00e4vda sig b\u00e4ttre mot det st\u00f6rsta partiet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Orban tog bort den andra omg\u00e5ngen och minskade antalet mandat i parlamentet till 199. 106 utses i enpersonvalkretsar i en omg\u00e5ng, d\u00e4r den med mest r\u00f6ster vinner. Det gynnar, som i till exempel Storbritannien, det st\u00f6rsta partiet. Genom att det blev f\u00e4rre mandat \u00f6kade enpersonvalkretsarna betydelse.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ungersktalande i andra l\u00e4nder fick r\u00f6str\u00e4tt till de proportionellt f\u00f6rdelade mandaten. De f\u00e5r brevr\u00f6sta och har i massiv utstr\u00e4ckning st\u00f6tt Orban. Det \u00e4r som om finlandsvenskar skulle ges r\u00f6str\u00e4tt i svenska riksdagsval och antyder att Ungern \u00e4nnu inte fullt ut har accepterat f\u00f6rlusten av landomr\u00e5den efter f\u00f6rsta v\u00e4rldskriget.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ungrare som bor utomlands men har en adress i Ungern f\u00e5r r\u00f6sta i b\u00e5de enpersonsvalkretsarna och det proportionella valet, men de f\u00e5r inte brevr\u00f6sta utan m\u00e5ste r\u00f6sta p\u00e5 ambassader eller konsultat. De senare tenderar att i st\u00f6rre utstr\u00e4ckning inte r\u00f6sta p\u00e5 Fidesz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

De proportionella mandaten har d\u00e4rmed flera element. I grunden finns den r\u00f6st alla r\u00f6stber\u00e4ttigade med en adress i Ungern avger. Men sedan tillkommer r\u00f6sterna fr\u00e5n ungersktalande i andra l\u00e4nder. Dessutom finns \u201dkompensationsr\u00f6ster\u201d d\u00e4r partier kan tillgodor\u00e4kna sig r\u00f6ster de f\u00e5tt i enpersonsvalkretsar utan att bli valda. Men \u00e4ven segraren f\u00e5r tillgodor\u00e4kna sig de r\u00f6ster som inte beh\u00f6vs f\u00f6r att bli vald, det vill s\u00e4ga alla r\u00f6ster mer \u00e4n vad tv\u00e5an i valkretsen fick.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201dKompensationsr\u00f6ster \u00e4r till viss f\u00f6rdel f\u00f6r andra partier \u00e4n det st\u00f6rsta, men Orban inf\u00f6rde \u201dvinnarkomensationen\u201d, vilket gynnar partiet med flesta enpersonsmandat. Och det var tidigare hela tiden Fidesz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fidesz \u00e4ndrade ocks\u00e5 valkretsar f\u00f6r att gynna det egna partiet. \u00a0Men kartan \u00f6ver valkretsar antyder \u00e4nd\u00e5 att det inte var fr\u00e5gan om en alltf\u00f6r utstuderad \u201dgerrymandering\u201d. Valkretsarna ser ganska sammanh\u00e5llna ut, men Fidesz anklagades f\u00f6r att minska valkretsar d\u00e4r oppositionen var stark, och dra gr\u00e4nserna s\u00e5 att det blev fler mindre valkretsar med Fideszmajoritet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I det h\u00e4r valet hade uppenbarligen en klar majoritet av v\u00e4ljarna tr\u00f6ttnat p\u00e5 korruptionen, maktmissbruket och den ryssv\u00e4nliga utrikespolitiken. D\u00e5 slog valsystemet med full kraft tillbaka mot dess upphovsman. Valkretsarna var gjorda f\u00f6r att de ska bli m\u00e5nga med relativt liten Fideszmajoritet och f\u00e4rre med stor oppositionsmajoritet. Men d\u00e5 g\u00e5r m\u00e5nga valkretsar f\u00f6rlorade om valvinden bl\u00e5ser kraftigt emot det egna partiet. Vilket var vad som h\u00e4nde i Ungern.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tisza fick 92 enpersonsvalkretsar mot Fidesz 14. Av de 93 proportionella mandaten fick Tisza 44 och Fidesz 43. MH, som \u00e4r \u00e4nnu mer nationalistiskt och h\u00f6ger \u00e4n Fidesz, fick sex mandat. Fidesz fick 46 procent av mandaten, mer \u00e4n 39,1 procent av r\u00f6sterna. Tisza fick 52,4 procent av r\u00f6sterna, men 47 procent av mandaten.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tizsa kan p\u00e5 egen hand \u00e4ndra f\u00f6rfattningen och rulla tillbaka Orbanerans maktmissbruk. Efter det b\u00f6r man inf\u00f6ra ett valsystem som \u00e4r mer proportionellt och som g\u00f6r det sv\u00e5rare att f\u00e5 \u201dsupermajoritet\u201d. Valsystemet \u00e4r ofta en b\u00e4ttre garant mot maktmissbruk \u00e4n maktdelning genom att ge domstolar onfattande r\u00e4tt att \u00f6verpr\u00f6va politiska beslut eller att, som Magyar har talat om, inf\u00f6ra begr\u00e4nsade mandatperioder f\u00f6r premi\u00e4rministern.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Begr\u00e4nsade mandatperioder kan vara ber\u00e4ttigade i presidentsystem, d\u00e4r en direktvald statschef har betydande makt. I parlamentariska system \u00e4r det partierna som kontrollerar partiledaren och begr\u00e4nsade mandatperioder framst\u00e5r som tveksamma. F\u00f6rutsatt att valsystemet inte g\u00f6r det m\u00f6jligt att, som i Ungern, l\u00e5ta ett korrumperande parti vinna val efter val med mandatmajoritet som inte alls motsvarar en v\u00e4ljarmajoritet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Det \u00e4r brokig samling v\u00e4ljare som har r\u00f6stat bort Viktor Orban. Det kan d\u00e4rf\u00f6r bli sv\u00e5rt f\u00f6r Magyar att driva en sammanh\u00e4ngande politik och beh\u00e5lla v\u00e4ljarst\u00f6det. Det g\u00f6r det desto viktigare att rulla tillbaka maktmissbruket och \u00e4ndra valsystemet s\u00e5 att det b\u00e4ttre motsvarar partiernas r\u00f6standel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Det \u00e4r gott om analyser om varf\u00f6r Orban, trots \u00f6vertaget i medier och statsapparat, f\u00f6rlorade. V\u00e4ljarna var nog fr\u00e4mst tr\u00f6tta p\u00e5 korruption, maktmissbruk och en d\u00e5lig ekonomisk utveckling. Tycker den liberalkonservative Fraser Nelson i en kr\u00f6nika i The Times uttrycker det v\u00e4l:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“Orban once described Hungary as an incubator. \u201cExperiments are being conducted,\u201d he said, \u201cfor the conservative policies of the future.\u201d And the result? It does not look like the renewal of conservatism but its destruction. Hungary has sought to rally the global right to its own funeral.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For all of the intellectual dressing, Hungary has ended up looking more like Vladimir Putin\u2019s mafia state, while Poland and the Baltic states, which adopted more classic market solutions, are on course to be richer than Spain and Italy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIn Europe, the general conviction is that strong leaders are a bad thing because strong leaders represent danger,\u201d Orban told GB News recently. I\u2019d put it differently. The idea of the rule-breaking strongman, for all of its superficial appeal, always ends up the same way: with corruption and decay. When power, money and the media fuse, the system ceases to serve the public and begins to serve itself. That is the real lesson of Hungary\u2019s experiment: not that liberal democracy has failed but that, for all its flaws, the alternatives are worse.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Peter Magyar (v\u00e4nster) besegrade den m\u00e5ng\u00e5rige premi\u00e4rministern Viktor Orban (h\u00f6ger) i valet i Ungern. Valet i Ungern blev en seger f\u00f6r oppositionen, som hade samlat sig kring Peter Magyars Tisza. Opinionsm\u00e4tningarna pekade p\u00e5 Viktor Orbans Fidesz skulle f\u00f6rlora efter att ha styrt i 16 \u00e5r med en supermajoritet med minst tv\u00e5 tredjedelar av mandaten i […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[10],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-656","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-allman-inlagg"],"yoast_head":"\nValsystemet slog tillbaka mot dess skapare Viktor Orban - Richard Appelbom<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Viktor Orban \u00e4ndrade i valsystemet f\u00f6r att gynna st\u00f6rsta partiet. 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